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タイ在住11年目、妻はタイ人、娘が2人、養女が2人

--The Asahi Shimbun, March 20
EDITORIAL: BOJ needs exit strategy for negative interest rate policy
（社説）マイナス金利　弊害広げない方策を

One month has passed since the Bank of Japan took the risky and controversial move to introduce negative interest rates after it had almost run out of policy tools to enhance its aggressive “quantitative” monetary easing program.
　日本銀行がマイナス金利政策を導入して１カ月が経過した。量的緩和のカードをほとんど使い果たした日銀が、新たな緩和手段として賭けに打って出た政策である。

It is hardly possible to claim that this policy gamble has produced the expected positive results overall.
現状では、その賭けが良い結果をもたらしているとはとても言えない。

The BOJ’s action has achieved a further decline in long-term interest rates from their already record-low levels.
　この政策でもともと史上最低水準だった長期金利は一段と下がった。

But the move to push interest rates below zero has given an unexpectedly big jolt to financial markets, causing wild fluctuations in both stock prices and currency exchange rates in the ensuing weeks.
そこまでは日銀の狙い通りだ。ただ、株価や為替相場が乱高下を繰り返したところに金融市場の動揺が見て取れる。

The banking sector has criticized the negative interest rate policy, which is expected to deliver a blow to the earnings of lenders. Commercial banks are facing an increase in costs as the BOJ charges them 0.1 percent for their excess reserves at the central bank.
　この政策で収益悪化が見込まれる金融界からは批判の声があがっている。銀行が日銀に預ける当座預金の一部にマイナス金利がかかるので負担が増える。

Banks have also come under strong pressure to further cut their lending rates, which are already at historical lows.
　歴史的な低さの貸出金利をもう一段下げる必要にも迫られている。

That would be fine as long as lower lending rates goose demand for loans. But that doesn’t seem to be what is happening.
それで融資需要が増えるならいい。だが必ずしもそうではないようだ。

Banks have found that lower-rate mortgages have led to an increase in refinancing but failed to stoke demand for new housing loans.
住宅ローン金利を下げて増えたのは、安いローンに借り換える人たちばかりで新規需要は少ないという。

The monetary easing policy was intended to prompt banks to expand their lending and encourage companies to ramp up their business investments. But the BOJ’s latest move seems counterproductive because it has only made things harder for commercial banks.
　銀行貸し出しを増やし、企業の投資を活発にする。それが金融緩和の目的のはずだった。こうして銀行経営を萎縮させてしまっては逆効果ではないか。

The negative interest rate policy is also beginning to blight the BOJ’s efforts to awaken inflationary expectations among consumers and businesses through its “different dimension” easing.
　日銀が異次元緩和で盛り上げようとした人々の「インフレ期待」にも影響が出ている。

In an Asahi Shimbun opinion poll conducted in February, 60 percent of respondents said they do not expect the negative interest rate policy to lead to economic growth.
朝日新聞が２月に実施した世論調査では、マイナス金利政策による景気回復が「期待できない」と答えた人は６割にのぼった。

Foreign regulators and policymakers have voiced concerns that any expansion of the negative interest rate policies that are in place in Japan and Europe could trigger a global currency war, or competitive devaluations of currencies among major economic powers to gain a trade advantage.
　一方、海外当局からは、日本や欧州のマイナス金利政策が強化されれば、世界的な通貨安競争の引き金にならないかという懸念が示されている。

The biggest beneficiary of the BOJ’s surprise policy move is probably Japan’s public finances. A further decline in long-term rates reduces the debt-servicing costs of the government, which has run up more than 1,000 trillion yen in debts.
　政策の恩恵を最も受けているのは日本の財政だろうか。長期金利の一段の低下で、１千兆円を超える国の借金の利払い費が抑えられるからだ。

As a result, however, there seems to be growing political momentum for relaxing fiscal discipline.
ただ、その結果、財政規律を緩めるムードが強まってはいないか。

Under ordinary circumstances, the central bank should not adopt the extremely radical approach of buying huge amounts of government bonds for monetary expansion.
　日銀による国債の大量買い入れは本来は禁じ手だ。

The BOJ’s unconventional policy, however, has been condoned as a measure to allow the government to buy time to fix its finances.
そこを財政立て直しの時間を稼ぐためだとして許されている面がある。

But some policymakers within the Abe administration are now openly arguing for postponing the consumption tax hike slated for next year. The administration appears to have the wrong idea about what should be the top fiscal policy priority.
ところが、いま政権内で消費増税見送り論が公然と語られているのは本末転倒である。

The BOJ’s monetary policy is now beginning to cause significant harm to the Japanese economy. If the BOJ continues this extraordinary monetary expansion program in a desperate effort to achieve its seemingly unrealistic 2-percent inflation target, the range of challenges confronting the Japanese economy will only become more serious and complicated.
　日銀の金融政策そのものが日本経済に弊害をもたらし始めている。現実的とは思えない２％インフレ目標にこだわり異常な緩和政策をこのまま続ければ、かえって日本経済が抱える問題は大きく複雑になっていく。

The central bank cannot quickly terminate its unprecedented policy even if it wants to because an abrupt end to the program would cause unacceptably large harmful effects on financial markets regarding interest and exchange rates.
　異次元緩和はやめたくなっても、すぐにはやめられない政策である。金利や為替など市場への影響が大きすぎるためだ。

Instead of wading deeper into uncharted waters, the BOJ should start working out a strategy for winding up the program while minimizing the negative consequences.
これ以上、深入りするのをやめ、影響を最小にとどめつつ撤退する方策を練るべきだ。