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タイ在住11年目、妻はタイ人、娘が2人、養女が2人

--The Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 10
EDITORIAL: BOJ's negative interest rate policy positively ineffective
（社説）長期金利低下　マイナスに潜む不安

The benchmark 10-year Japanese government bond yield on Feb. 9 fell below zero percent on the market for the first time. Is this good news or bad? Many people probably don’t know, but they certainly must be feeling anxious.
　これは良いニュースか、悪いニュースか。多くの人がそれさえ理解できないまま、おぼろげな不安だけを感じたのではないか。長期金利の指標となっている１０年物国債がきのうの市場で初めてマイナスになった。

In normal transactions, the idea of negative interest rates is absurd.
　本来なら正常な取引でマイナス金利はありえない。

Just think about it: You lend money to someone and you have to pay interest to the borrower? That’s ridiculous. You are obviously better off not lending to anyone because you at least won’t lose any money.
お金を貸した者が借りる者に金利を払うくらいなら、自分でお金を抱えている方が減らないだけましだからだ。

The ridiculous situation surrounding Japanese government bonds was caused by the Bank of Japan’s negative interest rate policy announced on Jan. 29.
　にもかかわらずこんな異常な金利が生じたのは、先月２９日に日本銀行が発表した「マイナス金利政策」の影響である。

BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda stressed that adding this negative interest rate policy to his already substantial monetary easing policy “should make for probably the most effective framework in the history of the central bank.”
　日銀の黒田東彦総裁は、これまで実施してきた大規模な量的緩和政策にマイナス金利政策を加えることで「これまでの中央銀行の歴史の中で、おそらく最も強力な枠組み」になると強調した。

In a sense, the outcome has surpassed Kuroda’s expectations. Mortgage rates, which were already historically low, have come down further, and the near-nonexistent interest rates on time deposits have shrunk even more. Financial institutions have stopped selling low-yield fund products.
　その狙いはある意味で想定以上に効果を発揮した。もともと歴史的低水準にあった住宅ローン金利は一段と下がった。わずかばかりの定期預金金利もさらに圧縮された。金融機関は利回りの魅力が乏しいファンド商品の発売を取りやめた。

But will these developments improve the Japanese economy? We believe the opposite will be the case.
　だが、こうした動きが日本経済を好転させるのかといえば、むしろ逆ではないか。

Even if lending rates drop further, it is unlikely that businesses will suddenly start investing more amid sluggish domestic demand. And even if banks further lower interest rates on savings and move on to negative rates, consumers probably will not start spending more so long as their future remains uncertain.
　貸出金利が一段と下がったとしても、国内需要が盛り上がりを欠く中で、企業が急に投資意欲を増すとは考えにくい。銀行が預金金利をゼロに近づけ、さらにマイナス金利にしたとしても、先行きへの不安が解消しないのに人々が急に消費に走るわけでもなかろう。

Switzerland and Sweden have already implemented negative interest rate policies, but their economy-pumping effects have been marginal at best. In fact, there are growing fears of “side effects,” such as people keeping their money under the proverbial mattress and banks losing their earnings.
　マイナス金利政策で先行するスイスやスウェーデンなどでも景気浮揚効果はほとんどなかった。むしろタンス預金の増加や銀行の収益悪化といった副作用のほうが心配されている。

It will soon be three years since Kuroda went ahead with a “new phase” of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing in keeping with Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s “Abenomics” theory that drastic monetary easing should jump-start the anemic economy.
　強力な金融緩和が経済を押し上げるというアベノミクス路線に乗って走り出した黒田日銀の異次元緩和も開始からまもなく３年になる。

Although Abenomics has raised stock prices and devalued the yen against the dollar, it has brought no significant changes to the nation’s economic growth rate and consumer prices. Because of this disappointing outcome, the Bank of Japan adopted the negative interest rate policy last month.
円安と株高はもたらしたものの、経済成長率や物価はほぼ横ばいで目立った効果はうかがえなかった。その手詰まり感からマイナス金利政策にも手を広げることになった。

On Feb. 9, the Nikkei 225 index fell by more than 900 points, and the yen-dollar exchange rate closed in the lower 114-yen level for the first time in 15 months. These market reactions were the opposite of what all past monetary easing policies brought, and the central bank obviously did not expect this highly irregular outcome.
　きのうの日経平均株価は９００円超下げ、円は一時１年３カ月ぶりの円高ドル安の１ドル＝１１４円台前半をつけた。これまでの緩和策への反応とは逆である。これは日銀にとっても想定外の異常事態ではないのか。

If this situation continues, the Japanese economy may well become trapped in a vicious cycle of having to rely on further extreme monetary easing, with no relief in sight. An urgent review of the central bank policy is called for.
　このままでは超金融緩和を続けないと回らない経済へと、はまっていきかねない。出口はますます遠くなるばかりだ。早急に政策の見直しが必要だ。