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タイ在住11年目、妻はタイ人、娘が2人、養女が2人

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Can sudden Beijing-Taipei detente help promote regional stability?
中台首脳初会談　急接近は地域安定に役立つか

For the first time since the Chinese mainland and Taiwan split in 1949, the top leaders from both sides of the Taiwan Strait have met face-to-face. This is definitely a historic meeting.
　１９４９年の分断後初めて、中国と台湾のトップが直接顔を合わせた。歴史的な会談である。

What influence can the sudden move toward rapprochement between Beijing and Taipei, each of which has refused to recognize the other’s sovereignty, have on the prospects for East Asia’s peace and prosperity? This question must be carefully scrutinized.
　互いに相手の主権を認めていない中台の急接近が、東アジアの平和と繁栄にどんな影響を与えるのか。慎重に見極めねばならない。

China’s President Xi Jinping and Taiwan’s President Ma Ying-jeou had the meeting on Saturday in Singapore, reconfirming what is referred to as the “1992 Consensus” based on the principle of “one China,” with each side having its own interpretation of what that means.
　中国の習近平国家主席と台湾の馬英九総統がシンガポールで会談し、「一つの中国」の原則を中台がそれぞれ独自に解釈するという「９２年合意」を再確認した。

Regarding Beijing-Taipei relations, Xi stressed in the meeting, “I hope the two sides will make joint efforts ... to uphold the 1992 Consensus ... keep the right direction in the development of cross-Strait relations.” Ma was said in response to have praised the current state of the relationship, noting the relations between the sides were “the most peaceful and stable period.”
　中台関係について習氏は、「双方が共に努力し、『９２年合意』を堅持し、正しい方向に発展し続けるよう望む」と強調した。馬氏も、「最も平和で安定した段階にある」と現状を高く評価した。

China has positioned the Beijing-Taipei summit as a strategic step toward future unification of the two sides. The summit can also be deemed to have stemmed from a well-calculated step on Xi’s part that was designed to demonstrate at home and abroad his intent to play a leadership role in addressing the Taiwan problem.
　中国は、首脳会談を将来の中台統一の布石と位置付ける。台湾問題を主導する姿を国内外に誇示する習氏の計算もうかがえる。

It is considered likely that the upcoming presidential election in Taiwan, scheduled for January next year, will lead to a change of government for the first time in eight years. Opinion polls show the candidate backed by the largest opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party — which leans toward independence for Taiwan — has a wide lead over the candidate supported by the ruling Nationalist Party (Kuomintang), which has been pushing a conciliatory stance toward China.
　来年１月の台湾の総統選では、８年ぶりの政権交代の可能性が強まっている。世論調査では、「独立」志向の最大野党・民進党の候補が、対中融和を進める与党・国民党候補を大きくリードする。

Summit could backfire

Xi intends to indirectly support Kuomintang. Ma, for his part, is keen to recover lost political ground at home by urging voters to support his party’s pursuit of a stable relationship between Taiwan and China. The Xi-Ma summit was realized because the political motives of both sides were well aligned.
　習氏は、国民党を側面支援したい。馬氏は、安定した対中関係を有権者に訴え、巻き返しを図りたい。首脳会談の実現は、両者の思惑が一致した結果である。

Ma, who is to leave his post in May next year, was probably also motivated to realize a meeting with China’s leader on an equal footing as his political legacy. However, it cannot be denied that the decline in popular support for the Kuomintang is due to the party’s policy of hastily getting closer to China economically, a policy that Ma has openly promoted since taking office in 2008, resulting in growing dependence on Beijing.
　来年５月に退任する馬氏には、中国首脳との対等な会談を政治的な「遺産」にする意図もあろう。だが、国民党の支持低迷は、２００８年の馬氏就任以来、露骨になった経済面の性急な対中接近・依存が招いたことは否めない。

Anxieties have been spreading among residents of Taiwan that the region will be absorbed by China. There is also deep-rooted resentment that Taiwan’s closer ties with Beijing have benefited only the wealthy people.
　台湾住民には、中国に呑のみ込まれるとの不安が広がる。中台緊密化の恩恵が富裕層にしか及んでいない、との不満も根強い。

An overwhelming majority of Taiwan’s residents want to maintain the status quo, neither unifying with China nor becoming independent. The summit this time will not necessarily benefit the Kuomintang in the presidential electoral campaign. On the contrary, the Xi-Ma meeting may backfire.
　住民の圧倒的多数は、「中台統一」でも「独立」でもない、「現状維持」を望んでいる。首脳会談が国民党に有利に働くとは限らない。逆効果となる恐れもある。

The agreement by the two leaders not to adopt a joint declaration presumably resulted from the two taking such circumstances into account.
　共同声明の見送りは、そうした事情に配慮したためだろう。

Amid the intensified U.S.-China confrontation over the South China Sea, it could be inferred that Xi intended to use the summit to create distance between Taiwan on one side and Japan and the United States on the other.
　南シナ海を巡る米国との対立が激しくなる中、習氏には、首脳会談を通じて、台湾と日米を離間する狙いが透けて見える。

In the meeting, Xi welcomed the participation by Taiwan in the China-initiated Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank. Directly supporting Taiwan’s participation in the bank in the summit after excluding Taipei as a founding member can be seen as part of China’s strategy to “embrace Taiwan.”
　習氏は今回、中国主導のアジアインフラ投資銀行（ＡＩＩＢ）への台湾の加盟を歓迎すると表明した。創設メンバーから除外した台湾への配慮を直接示したのも「取り込み策」の一環と言える。

China, which has an overwhelming advantage over Taiwan in terms of both air and naval capabilities, has arrayed a large number of ballistic missiles on its coast. Stability of the Taiwan Strait is a matter of high importance that could affect Japan’s security.
　中国は、沿岸部に大量の台湾向け弾道ミサイルを配備し、航空・海上戦力でも台湾を圧倒する。台湾海峡の安定は、日本の安全保障にもかかわる重要課題だ。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, Nov. 8, 2015)