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タイ在住11年目、妻はタイ人、娘が2人、養女が2人

The Yomiuri Shimbun
Can China ensure a soft landing on stable economic growth?
中国全人代開幕　安定成長へ軟着陸できるか

Can China, the world’s second-largest economic power, adroitly bring years of high growth to a soft landing on more stable economic growth? The answer to this question will have a large impact on the future prospects of the global economy as well.
　世界２位の経済大国・中国は、高成長から安定成長へうまく軟着陸できるのか。その成否は世界経済の行方にも大きな影響を与えよう。

The National People’s Congress, China’s equivalent of the Diet, has opened its annual meeting.
　中国の国会にあたる全国人民代表大会が開幕した。

Premier Li Keqiang delivered the government work report, in which he announced a growth target for this year of about 7 percent, down from the previous goal of about 7.5 percent.
　李克強首相は政府活動報告で、経済成長率の目標をこれまでの「７・５％前後」から「７％前後」に引き下げた。

China’s economy expanded 7.4 percent last year, falling short of the targeted growth rate. Some observers have estimated that — based on China’s electricity consumption, volume of goods shipped by rail and other factors — the actual figure might have been even lower.
　昨年の成長率は、目標を下回る７・４％にとどまった。電力消費量や鉄道輸送量などから推計すると、実際の成長率はもっと低いとの見方もある。

In his report, Li said China’s “economic development has entered a ‘new normal’” whereby “a model of development that draws on high levels of investment and energy consumption and is heavily driven by quantitative expansion becomes difficult to sustain.”
　李氏は報告で「経済発展は新常態（ニューノーマル）に入った」と述べた。「大規模投入、資源・エネルギーの高消費、数量の拡張に偏った発展パターンは、もはや続けられない」とも強調した。

The growth deceleration can be said to indicate China’s path to economic expansion — which has been powered by investment in projects centering on large-scale infrastructure construction — is nearing its limit.
　成長の減速は、大規模なインフラ整備をはじめとした投資主導の成長路線が、限界に近づいていることを示していると言える。

As workers’ wages soar, dark clouds are appearing over the competitiveness of China’s exports and the nation’s appeal as the “world’s factory.”
　労働者の賃金が高騰し、輸出競争力や「世界の工場」としての魅力にも陰りが見えている。

We can understand Beijing’s acceptance that a slower degree of growth is “normal” and its intention to make structural adjustments to the economy.
　一定の減速を「常態」として容認し、経済構造の転換を図ろうという狙いは理解できる。

Mitigating uncertainty

Other issues Li addressed in his speech included a greater focus on the quality of economic growth, encouraging personal consumption and measures to prevent the spread of financial risks.
　李氏は、課題として、成長の質の重視、個人消費の促進、金融リスクの拡大防止などを挙げた。

As China’s real estate market conditions have deteriorated, huge loans made to regional governments and other entities that have spearheaded land development are reportedly going bad. The impoverished state of regional cities is especially conspicuous. The government will be tested on how it plans to avoid social unrest.
　不動産市況の悪化により、土地開発を主導してきた地方政府などへの巨額の融資が、不良債権化していると言われる。特に、地方都市の疲弊が目立つ。社会不安をどう回避するかが問われる。

China also needs to advance the consolidation and reorganization of its bloated state enterprises to spur the growth of private businesses.
　肥大化した国有企業の整理・再編を進めることで、民間企業の成長を促すことも必要だ。

Pain will accompany reforms that drive a wedge into vested interests. It will not be easy to keep a lid on public dissatisfaction while swinging the big ax of reform. The administration of President Xi Jinping faces a difficult task in steering the nation through this challenge.
　既得権益に切り込む改革は痛みが伴う。国民の不満を抑えながら、大なたを振るうのは、容易ではあるまい。習近平政権は、難しいかじ取りを迫られている。

Despite the economic slowdown, China’s defense budget was increased by more than 10 percent from the previous year. It has now swollen to about 3.4 times the size of Japan’s defense-related expenditure.
　一方、経済減速にかかわらず、中国の国防予算は前年より１０％以上増え、日本の防衛関係費の約３・４倍に膨らんだ。

Much of China’s spending focuses on strengthening its nuclear capabilities, as well as its air and sea forces for its maritime expansion and efforts to stand up against the United States.
海洋進出や米国への対抗をにらんだ海空軍と核戦力の増強が重点となる。

If other costs such as military-related research and development spending were included, the actual size of China’s defense budget would be significantly larger than the publicly announced figure. This opaque military expansion will only stoke a growing distrust of China.
　研究開発費なども含めれば、実際の予算は公表分を大きく上回ろう。不透明な軍拡は、国際的な対中不信を増幅させるだけだ。

Li also touched on the upcoming 70th anniversary of the end of World War II. In his speech, Li said, “China will protect the fruits of victory in the war and the world’s fairness and justice.”
　李氏は、戦後７０年に関して「第２次大戦の勝利の成果と、世界の公平、正義を守る」と述べた。

Li probably wanted to emphasize that China will protect the global order as one of the “victor nations” in the war. However, is it not China itself that has laid down a challenge to the postwar order through its repeated military clashes with India and Vietnam?
　「戦勝国」として世界秩序を守ると強調したいのだろうが、インドやベトナムとの武力衝突を繰り返し、戦後秩序に挑戦してきたのは、中国ではないか。

(From The Yomiuri Shimbun, March 6, 2015)